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AAPLApple Inc.
Mega-Cap / Hyperscaler10-K · Filed 2025-10-31
Clarity Fair Value
$176.78
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED (-31.1%)
Market Price
$256.68
▼ 31.1% Downside
$157$235$314$393$472202620282030203220342036Market $257
Fair Value PathMarket Price

Model BlendHIGH agreement · 15% spread

DCF$174.16 · 49%
Comps$216.20 · 33%
EV/Rev$160.50 · 11%
Residual Income$45.52 · 4%
ROIC Fade$37.70 · 4%
Trailing Rev Growth
6.4%
Model Implied CAGR
14.4%
1Y Price Target
$203.80
Market Cap
$3768B

AAPL Valuation Summary

Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has an estimated fair value of $176.78 per share, compared to its current market price of $256.68. The stock is currently trading 31.1% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 5 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, and 2 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 5 models show high agreement with a 15% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 16.6% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $149.67.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $203.80, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

Apple Inc. is classified under the Mega-Cap / Hyperscaler sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2025-10-31 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.

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Updated Mar 9, 2026, 2:43 PM UTC · Powered by Clarity Valuation Engine · Methodology

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Valuation Summary

Clarity's 6-model valuation engine estimates Apple Inc. (AAPL) at $176.78 per share, compared to the current market price of $256.68. This represents a 31.1% downside from the current price. The verdict is SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation was generated from Apple Inc.'s 10-K · Filed 2025-10-31 filing, classified in the Mega-Cap / Hyperscaler sector with high confidence. Model agreement is HIGH with a 15% spread across models.

Models used: DCF (scenario-weighted), Residual Income, Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, ROIC Fade, and Dividend Discount Model. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR and validated against XBRL structured filings.